Once again Yemen is faced with extreme turmoil.
When mutinous troops of the central security and the national guard and Houthi militia had further advanced into the South and come dangerously close to Aden, the present seat of the government, the situation escalated. President Hadi escaped and was flown via Riadh to Sharm alSheikh to attend the summit of the Arab League, where Yemen and the military intervention of the Golf countries are the central topic.
Yemen has become a priority theme in international news, this also since the aggravated situation with rising oil prices entailed worldwide consequences. The conflict raging in Yemen is referred to as religious confrontation or proxy war for the power play between Saudi Arabia and Iran for predominance in the Middle East by numerous news agencies.
Hadi himself and representatives of Arab States tend to portray the conflict at the summit in such simple terms in order to – eventually – meet with more solidarity among Arab countries against Iran and create the basis for a joint military rapid deployment force. Mohamed bin Salman, the son of the ailing king and now the young Minister of Defence of Saudi Arabia, distinguishes himself as leading figure and Yemen contributes the venue for the first deployment of a pan-Arabic force.
The situation is much more complex, however: three parties fight for power in Yemen. The present drama is by no means a religious confrontation – as incorrectly postulated by some media, but a political and military struggle for power.
The key player is Ali Abdullah Saleh, deposed as president after the 2011 revolution, who in 30 years of absolute rule has established and maintained an efficient network with the army, the security forces, an elite having become wealthy, and the tribes. Although he had been granted immunity and could enjoy a splendid living with all his family with the 60 billion USD privately “generated” during his time in office, he never accepted having been forced to step down and makes every effort – above all by sabotaging the government of Abdrubbah Mansur Hadi, his vice-president and successor, to take over again and establish his son Ahmed Ali, the former commander of the Republican Guard, as president in a centralistic and authoritatively ruled Yemen. He fully realised that in the event of a continuation of the road map of the Golf countries for the political transition, i.e. the adoption of a new constitution stipulating democratic voting rights and corresponding registration of voters, he could no longer count on a regular electoral victory. He is backed only by a small minority who profited from his unjust enrichment at the expense of his people while investments in infrastructure and economy for the benefit of the entire population were criminally neglected.
During the last months, Saleh´s strategies to usurp power culminated because of the time schedule of the political transition, while he – as throughout his entire period of office – acted ruthlessly vis-à-vis the Yemeni population increasingly sinking into poverty and exposed to acts of sabotage, to be spelt out not only in the form of bloody attacks but also intentional shortage of power, automotive fuel, gas and other basic elements of supply, and further measures to destabilise the government of Addrubbah Mansur Hadi. He cleverly also used of his media imperium for his purposes, hammering the idea into the population´s heads that everything had been better before – under Saleh – and is much worse now under a weak government.
Two years ago, Saleh already hatched a plot to regain power by misusing the Houthis. Partners in this plot had, besides Houthi representatives, also been representatives of the UAE and of the former Saudi King Abdullah – and Iran had also been duly kept informed. The plot did not remain secret and finally resulted in UN-sanctions against Saleh and the Houthis (travel bans, blocked accounts). Outside the country Saleh´s son Ahmed Ali, Ambassador in the Emirates, had coordinated the plot and endeavoured to hide the billions of money at Dubai financial centre to avoid the freezing of accounts.
A telephone conversation between ex-president Saleh and a Houthi representative, published by AlJazeera a few weeks ago, in which the prevention of the designation of Ahmed bin Mubarak as head of government in November 2014 was discussed, offers the conclusion that Saleh pulled the strings in this political plot.
It still remains an enigma why the Houthis conspired in this plot. It should have been foreseeable that Saleh never intended to share power with the Houthis and would in the event of military successes, in turn causing alarm bells to ring in the Golf countries, send the Houthis to their doom, and become regarded as saver of the country and smoothly take over. The expulsion of the most important representatives of Islah, the destruction of their party structure and the hunt for president Hadi and his government, the dissolution of all governmental structures and the violation of laws resulted in a nightmare of destabilisation, chaos and violence within the past weeks and months. Two days prior to the first bombing of the pan-Arabic air force Ali Ahmed Saleh promptly appeared in person in Riadh, submitting this very plot: ex-president Saeh sends the Houthis to their doom, and in return Saudi Arabia arranges the lifting of sanctions for the Salehs and paves their way to power.
According to alArabia, however, he met with definite refusal by Mohamed bin Salman (35), the new minister of defence, who also is the closest confident of his father, king Salman. He referred to the Golf initiative and the legitimacy of the presidency of Abdrubbah Mansur Hadi. He also pointed out that the red line is the city of Aden and that the Golf countries would intervene as soon as this red line would be crossed – which happened not later than March 25th..
The Houthis have acquired a reputation of invincible warriors in the course of their march from Saada via Amran to Sana´a and further on in Eastern, Western and Southern directions. Many of these triumphal marches are pure camouflage but it is this very camouflage which explains the utter bewilderment of the population. In most cases – above all in Taizz and Aden – the Houthis did not march into these cities but had already been there. In the bigger towns barracks and weapon arsenals abound, deployed by the “special forces”, mostly former members of the central security (amn almarkazi) and the republican guard (harras aljumhori), and the soldiers of these units only obey the orders of Saleh, simulating the triumphal procession of the Houthis.
A determination of Who, When, How and Why in respect of the belligerent activities will prove almost impossible since it is not clear which armed groups with which designations carried out which activities. Both armed supporters of the Houthis ( i.e. troops loyal to Saleh) and organised tribal militia could be involved. Houthis are encountered in both civilian outfit and various military uniforms. Among the security forces are units assisting the Houthis to advance and others fighting for Hadi (although a minority). The majority of the elite forces obey Saleh´s orders but also change from military to civilian dress according to the occasion, thus giving rise to total confusion about the fighting aggregations. To complicate the situation, disinformation is ever more spreading and panic is launched by the media.
The tribal militia supporting president Hadi are, on principle, equipped with light weapons only, while Houthi and Saleh soldiers have heavy war gear, stemming partly from the army and partly supplied by Iran.
The “genuine” Houthi warrior can be recognized by his being very young, incessantly chewing qat and equipped with a Kalashnikov – and eager to defeat the “Daashi”.
The motives and targets of the Houthis are so very difficult to assess because they have changed so much over the past months.They also appear to act much less under Iranian influence at present than under Saleh´s instructions. In the beginning their overall goal had been to obtain more equality and justice from the state.
Since the determination of the new regional frontiers, in February 2014, it is obvious that they also aspire a territorial expansion of their catchment area and possession of a red sea port and the oil wells in Marib. After the merger with Saleh their alleged aim of combating corruption and alQaida has become as implausible as their slogan dating back to the Iranian Islamic revolution in 1979. Since the siege of Sana´a on 21st September, 2014, they have obviously gone in for an authoritarian military rule all over Yemen.
Where they fail to achieve a territorial “handover” as in alBeidha and most recently in Taizz they definitely focus on military expansion, usually obtaining a peaceful surrender by claiming to attempt exterminating alQaida. A remarkable feature in this context is the fact that many Houthi militiamen consider all opponents – by now alQaida, the salafists, Islah and lately also president Hadi (but not Saleh and Moutamar) as “Daashi“. Daashi, derived from “Daash” is the abbreviation for Doula Islamia fi Sham, Islamic state in Sham, Middle East – in short IS.
The bombing raids of Saudi war planes have been frightening above all the Sana´ani population since 26th March as numerous Houthi locations and the barracks and arsenals of the national guard and the central security are in the city or in close vicinity. Shelling Sana´a makes the inhabitants leave the city, whereas supply shortages start affecting Aden: shops, banks, service stations and other utility installations have been closed for days, added to this are power cuts and armed conflicts in all parts of the city.
The further development will no longer be decided on national level but in a regional and international context. The Golf countries are interested in continuing their “relief actions” for Yemen, permitting them to test and consolidate the formation of their pan-Arabic militia in actual practice. Iran, Russia and China object to armed interventions; Russia and China recognize Hadi as legitimate president – as does the rest of the World.
The Houthis so far declined all attempts at entering into negotiations and want to fight to the last man. Saleh wants to negotiate but no one wants to do so with him while the UN and many observers postulate that the crisis can only be solved on the negotiating table. But who wants to negotiate with whom?